Sunday, October 20, 2013

Worse than truck being allowed high speeds, is that different speeds are allowed.

Anat Admati in “The Compelling Case for Stronger and More Effective Leverage Regulation in Banking” October 14, 2013, refers to “The speeding analogy” which appeared in hers and Martin Hellwig’s splendid book "The Bankers' new clothes"

“Imagine that trucks were allowed to drive faster than all other cars on the road even though they are the most dangerous. Further suppose that the trucking companies and the drivers are rewarded the faster they are able to make a delivery, benefit from subsidized insurance, and have a special safety system that protects the driver in case of accidents and explosions. The companies might produce narratives suggesting that their deliveries are essential and that the fast delivery is important for economic growth. They and others might produce models suggesting possible “tradeoffs” associated with a lower speed limit for the trucks. Whereas there probably are tradeoffs associated with trucks driving too slowly, it is clear that they are irrelevant, and there are no tradeoffs, when choosing between 90 miles per hour and 50 miles per hour for a truck carrying dangerous cargo in a residential neighborhood”

Yes, Admati is right in her analogy.

What guarantees mayhem more than a generally allowed high speed is, as I have argued for years, to allow different vehicles, based on safety ratings, to drive at different speeds (risk-weights) on the same streets. Sooner or later those safety ratings, will either be captured by interested speeders, or simply be wrong; and besides these loony traffic regulations will make it more difficult for doctors, fire trucks and other vital essentials to arrive in time.

But no, Admati is very wrong in her analogy when she mentions: “Imagine that trucks were allowed to drive faster than all other cars on the road even though they are the most dangerous.”

That is because what's perceived as “most dangerous”, the risky, the trucks, is what currently in banking must transit at the slowest speeds, the lowest allowed bank leverages; while those perceived as the safest, like sovereigns, residential mortgages and AAA rated securities, are those allowed to go through our residential neighborhoods at the highest speeds, the highest allowed leverages.

I do understand, it is hard to internalize that, at least when it comes to banking, that which is perceived as safe is so much more dangerous to the system than that which is perceived as risky. Sadly way too many missed their lectures on conditional probabilities. 


All this is of course why I give much more importance to eliminating the risk-weighting of the capital requirements for banks, than just increasing the basic capital required. In fact the more capital banks are asked to increase the capital means that, while that is being taken cared off, the worse will be the effective discrimination against those who, even though they in fact pose the least de facto risks for the banks, are been castigated with the highest risk weights. Remember "The drowning pool"